Russia may launch a false flag and unleash another war in Kazakhstan
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Since 2022, there has been a lot of hostile negativity towards Kazakhstan in the Russian information space, and in 2024 it has become even more. One or another Russian talking head threatens the Kazakhs at least once a week with a hybrid or overt intervention.
According to Obozrevatel media outlet, and the group “Information Resistance”, we hear much more often from Russian propaganda talking heads about Kazakhstan.
When a wave of protests swept across Kazakhstan in 2022, in addition to the so-called CSTO units, Russia also sent a landing force of its propagandists to the republic. And then they spread narratives that were almost identical to those they had already spread before the invasion of Ukraine.
In addition, the command of the CSTO contingent in Kazakhstan was assigned to the commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Andrey Serdyukov. It was he who led the operation to occupy the Crimean Peninsula by Russia in 2014, and later the units of the Russian occupation forces in Donbass, using the call sign “Sedov”. Kazakhstan’s biggest problem with Russia is their shared 7,598.8-kilometer border. It is the longest continuous border in the world, and its control is a major problem. A breakthrough is possible at any location, but not any location will do.
If Russia does attempt to invade Kazakhstan, it will be carried out according to the classic scheme – along highways and railways. Especially along the latter, which will have to provide the main logistics and material and technical support of the troops.
While the border with Russia is a vulnerable point due to its length, Kazakhstan’s size is its trump card. Controlling such spaces is very difficult, and with a well-organized defense it will be easier to wear down and exhaust the enemy – even if it has a numerical advantage.
Although Russia is already exhausted by the war in Ukraine, it still represents a dangerous potential for small armies, which include the Kazakh one.it is noted that a weakened Russia itself will not be able to provide the necessary number of forces and means for an invasion of Kazakhstan. Depending on the goals and objectives at different stages, the Russian Armed Forces can use a contingent of up to 100-150 thousand personnel, divided into several groups of troops operating separately.But despite all its bellicose statements against Kazakhstan, it is clear that Russia will not be able to form such a group to achieve its goal – control of the capital.
Even despite the less than ideal technical condition of the Kazakh army, its mechanized component, mainly represented by old Soviet equipment, the condition of the Russian army is not getting better, but even worse with each passing month. But still, the war in Ukraine has shown that in modern conditions it is not even those who have quantitative superiority on the ground that dominate, but those who dominate in the air.
Therefore, the creation of a storage base of FPV drones and the training of operators can become a serious help for the Kazakh army – in case of not only an invasion from Russia, but also any other vector conflict.
The constant threats from Russian talking heads against Kazakhstan do not pose any practical threat at this stage. Russia will not be able to sustain another war, which will require resources no less than the war in Ukraine.
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